运筹与管理2018，Vol.27Issue(1)：31-36,6.DOI:10.12005/orms.2018.0005
产业生命周期视角下的并购期权价值评估方法优化研究
Optimization of Real Option Valuation Method in Mergers &Acquisitions Based on Industrial Life Cycle
摘要
Abstract
Value of mergers&acquisitions(M&A)is often measured by Black-Scholes model because of its char-acteristics of real option.However, traditional Black-Scholes model does not take account of the influence of industrial life cycle(ILC)on the value of real option.This paper analyzes the features of M&A real option during the different phases of ILC and points out that M&A real option value changes with different stages of ILS. Gompertz prediction model is chosen to fit ILC curve in our research.By transforming Gompertz prediction model appropriately,we deduce an amended coefficient ηtwhich optimizes Black-Scholes real option valuation model of M&A.The improvement is available to calculate the value of M&A real option more rationally and make decision of M&A more scientifically,which avoids overestimating risk during the process of M&A valuation.关键词
产业生命周期/并购期权/价值评估Key words
industrial life cycle/real option of mergers and acquisitions/valuation of mergers and acquisitions分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘洪久,胡彦蓉,马卫民,孙伟国..产业生命周期视角下的并购期权价值评估方法优化研究[J].运筹与管理,2018,27(1):31-36,6.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJA630030) （14YJA630030）
浙江省自然科学基金(LY18G010005,LY17G020025) （LY18G010005,LY17G020025）
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(17NDJC262YB) （17NDJC262YB）
