中国铁道科学2018，Vol.39Issue(1)：131-137,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4632.2018.01.18
基于概率模型的高速铁路地震预警实时性与准确性分析
Real Time and Accuracy Analysis of Earthquake Early Warning for High Speed Railway Based on Probability Model
摘要
Abstract
Earthquake early warning time delay was used to evaluate the real time of earthquake early warning for high speed railway.According to the characteristics of earthquake early warning time delay,an offset gamma distribution model of earthquake early warning time delay was established.The nature of offset gamma distribution and a maximum likelihood estimation algorithm of distribution parameters were given.The seismic source location deviation was adopted to evaluate the accuracy of earthquake early warning.With the epicenter distance deviation obeying gamma distribution and the azimuth deviation obeying uniform distribution as two-dimensional random variables,a two-dimensional distribution model of source location deviation was established.Field tests of a high speed railway earthquake early warning system were carried out with 300 seismic record data as inputs to validate the correctness of the established models and evaluate the real time and accuracy of high speed railway earthquake early warning.Results show that the offset gamma distribution model can accurately describe the earthquake early warning time delay and the gamma distribution can effectively describe the epicenter distance deviation.With the increase of the number of seismic monitoring stations,the real time of earthquake early warning is decreased but the accuracy is obviously improved.With three earthquake monitoring stations and under 70％ probability,earthquake early warning can realize the time delay of the whole system less than 7 s and the epicenter distance deviation less than 20 km,which can satisfy the requirements for the real-time and accuracy of earthquake early warning for high speed railway.关键词
高速铁路/地震预警/伽马分布/偏置伽马分布/实时性/准确性Key words
High speed railway/Earthquake early warning/Gamma distribution/Offset gamma distribution/Real time/Accuracy分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王澜,戴贤春,习年生,魏猛..基于概率模型的高速铁路地震预警实时性与准确性分析[J].中国铁道科学,2018,39(1):131-137,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金高铁联合基金重点资助项目(U1534202) （U1534202）
