高电压技术2018，Vol.44Issue(2)：534-540,7.DOI:10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20171107001
基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Based on Real-time Health Index of Equipment
摘要
Abstract
The equipment failure rate used in conventional risk assessment of distribution network is the statistical result,thus it is not related with the real-time equipment condition and the difference of the same kind equipment.Consequently,we used the equipment health index to reflect the real-time operation condition of equipment based on its on-line monitoring result.Moreover,we established the relationship between the health index and real-time equipment failure rate of equipment in distribution network,and the equipment included distribution transformer,switchgear,cable,and overhead transmission line.The coefficients of ratio and curvature were gained,and the real-time failure rate of the equipment of the distribution network could be obtained according to the on-line monitoring and live detection results.Then,failure rate and power outage user-hours of load were calculated based on real-time equipment failure rate and net topology with minimum path method,which could overcome the lack of consideration in traditional methods that did not take into account the weakness of the grid structure caused by the damage of the distribution equipment.Thereafter,the quantitative risk assessment of distribution could be achieved with sum of power outage loss at different load point,compensating the deficiency of the qualitative analysis of the traditional state evaluation.Finally,the test results of IEEE-RBTS BUS6 indicate the failure rate,failure time,risk of the load point can be calculated.The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.关键词
健康指数/状态评估/配电网风险/实时故障率/最小路法/定量分析Key words
health index/condition assessment/distribution network risk/real-time equipment failure rate/minimum path method/quantitative analysis引用本文复制引用
史常凯,宁昕,孙智涛,亢超群,杜月,马国明..基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估[J].高电压技术,2018,44(2):534-540,7.基金项目
国家电网公司科技项目(PD7114034) （PD7114034）
千人计划项目(PD7114041).Project supported by Science& Technology Project of SGCC(PD7114034),Project of Recruitment Program of Global Experts(PD7114041). （PD7114041）
