水力发电学报2018，Vol.37Issue(1)：1-10,10.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20180101
梯级水库群大坝风险防控设计研究
Research on design of dam-break risks control for cascade reservoirs
摘要
Abstract
The dam risk criteria,design methodology of risk control,and design safety index system of cascade reservoirs are essential to the safety management of a river basin.In this paper we systematically examine previous studies in China and overseas,and suggests an acceptable social risk criterion of 10-6/a and a tolerable social risk criterion of 10-5/a for cascade reservoirs.We also present a trinity design methodology of"safety factor-reliability index-annual failure probability" based on the current methods of project design,the theories of safety margin ratio,and the Bayesian network.According to its grading standard and risk control functions in the river basin,a hydropower project can be defmed as a "special class project",if it satisfies:dam height greater than 200 m and water storage capacity larger than 1 billion m3,or its dam break will cause the First Class dam break in the downstream.For this special class,we suggest a risk control standard:annual failure probability of (1.0-5.0) × 10-8 and reliability index of 4.45-4.70,and construct a system of risk design indexes including the design standards for flood control,seismic resistance,dam reserved free board,and flood discharging capacity.The results of this study would fill the gap in the standards for safety design of super-high dams over 200m high and help the research on risk control theories and design of cascade reservoirs.关键词
梯级水库群/大坝风险标准/溃坝风险防控/特等工程/设计安全标准Key words
cascade reservoirs/dam risk criteria/dam-break risk control/special class project/safety design standard分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周建平,周兴波,杜效鹄,王富强..梯级水库群大坝风险防控设计研究[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(1):1-10,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CB036403) （973）
