水利学报2018，Vol.49Issue(1)：9-18,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170750
变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展
Advances in hydro-meteorological forecast under changing environment
摘要
Abstract
With the change of global climate and underlying surface characteristics,and increasing human activities,hydro-meteorological factors such as precipitation,evaporation,and runoff,etc.,are directly affected,therefore the assumption of stationarity may no longer exist.In a changing environment,the conventional runoff predicting methods become invalid,which brings challenges to accurate hydro-meteorological forecast.A review of hydro-meteorological forecast research under a changing environment is presented from the aspects of precipitation data fusion,numerical weather forecast,watershed hydrological model,parameterization,data assimilation and ensemble forecast.Much relevant research has been studied,and a lot of achievements have been achieved.The future research on hydrological forecast under changing environment will mainly focus on the following direction:(1) to further improve the accuracy and spatial resolution of precipitation forecast;(2) structure improvement and uncertainty analysis of hydrological models;(3) description methods of hydrological forecast error and reliability.关键词
非一致性/气象水文预报/数值天气预报/流域水文模型/参数率定/数据同化/集合预报Key words
non-stationarity/hydro-meteorological forecast/numerical weather forecast/watershed hydrological model/parameterization/data assimilation/ensemble forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
雷晓辉,王浩,廖卫红,杨明祥,桂梓玲..变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):9-18,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFB0203104) （2017YFB0203104）
国家自然科学基金项目(51709273) （51709273）
