电力系统自动化2018，Vol.42Issue(5)：120-126,146,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170516014
结合证据理论和双层规划的电压稳定不确定分析
Uncertainty Analysis of Voltage Stability Based on Evidence Theory and Bilevel Programming
摘要
Abstract
This paper presents a new uncertainty analysis method of static voltage stability for power systems with wind power generators,based on the evidence theory and bilevel programming.Firstly,the uncertainty of wind speed is described by the concept of basic probability assignment(BPA)in the evidence theory,and the uncertainty analysis model of the static voltage stability is developed.Then,a plurality of hypercube domains are obtained by constructing the joint basic probability assignment of the wind speed,and the original uncertainty analysis problem of static voltage stability is transformed into the problem of farthest and closest voltage stability critical point in these hypercube domains.Finally,bilevel programming method is applied to calculate the farthest and closest critical point problem,and the maximum and minimum load margin in these hypercube domains are obtained,then the belief cumulative probability distribution (BCPD) and plausibility cumulative probability distribution(PCPD)of load margin are synthesized.The numerical results of IEEE 118-bus and IEEE 300-bus systems indicate that,compared with traditional probabilistic methods,the proposed model and method can describe the obj ective and subj ective uncertainty information of wind speed,and the minimum and maximum probability of voltage instability can be determined through the BCPD and PCPD of the load margin.It is in line with the thinking habits of power dispatching personnel.关键词
证据理论/电压稳定/负荷裕度/双层规划/风力发电/信任累积概率分布/似然累积概率分布Key words
evidence theory/voltage stability/load margin/bilevel programming/wind power generation/belief cumulative probability distribution/plausibility cumulative probability distribution引用本文复制引用
鲍海波,郭小璇,韦化..结合证据理论和双层规划的电压稳定不确定分析[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(5):120-126,146,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228205) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目资助项目(51667003).This work is supported by National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB228205)and National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51667003). （51667003）
