电网技术2018，Vol.42Issue(2)：578-584,7.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.1253
结合M-Copula理论与半不变量的随机潮流方法
Probabilistic Load Flow Method Combining M-Copula Theory and Cumulants
摘要
Abstract
With more and more renewable energy,such as photovoltaic and wind power,integrated into power systems,random problem of power system operation becomes increasingly prominent.Traditional deterministic power flow will not reflect actual operation status of power systems,while probabilistic load flow can fully consider various kinds of operating conditions of power systems and provide a guidance for power system planning and operation.However,nonlinear correlation with renewable energy is complex due to time and spatial coupling of natural conditions.In order to deal with this nonlinear correlation,a new eumulant method based on M-Copula theory combining eunulants for probabilistic load flow is proposed,and multiple Copula function models are chosen to describe complex correlation between random variables.The proposed method can deal with the nonlinear correlation with renewable energy and maintain fast computation speed of curnulant method.The fast computation speed and high accuracy of this algorithm is proved with ease study in a modified IEEE 14 system by comparing with Monte Carlo simulations.关键词
M-Copula理论/非线性相关性/半不变量/随机潮流/蒙特卡洛Key words
M-Copula theory/nonlinear correlation/cumulant/probabilistic load flow/Monte Carlo分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘俊,郝旭东,程佩芬,王超,宋行..结合M-Copula理论与半不变量的随机潮流方法[J].电网技术,2018,42(2):578-584,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51507126) （51507126）
陕西省重点研发计划(2017ZDCXL-GY-02-03).Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51507126) （2017ZDCXL-GY-02-03）
Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi(2017ZDCXL-GY-02-03). （2017ZDCXL-GY-02-03）
