气象2017，Vol.43Issue(11)：1410-1419,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.11.010
湖南古丈山体滑坡影响因子分析
Analysis of Impact Factor of Landslide in Guzhang County of Hunan Province
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the factors which led to landslide in Guzhang of Hunan Province on 17 July 2016.Based on the GIS space analysis tools,all geological factors contributing to the Guzhang landslide are analyzed by using the geological disaster investigation data with scale of 1 ∶ 50000,distribution of road and railway as well as the net of small rivers,river banks and aspect of landslides.Using the module of Bayesian inference,and Gibbs Sampling (BUGS),the parameters of I-D curves are estimated,and the effective rainfall which led to the landslides of Guzhang area is studied.Combining the previous disaster investigation of Guzhang landslides with the analysis result,we get a detailed cause of Guzhang landslides,which is helpful in warning landslides there in future.The analysis about the landslide factor of Guzhang landslide shows us that the extremely heavy rains are the main cause for the landslides,the badly cutting slope condition caused by traffic construction,sensitive slope interval and the high risk of the aspect to the landslide are also the key factors for the 17 July landslide at Morong of Guzhang.The research methods and findings are conductive to the future warning of geological disasters.关键词
滑坡/地质灾害/I-D曲线/降水临界条件/贝叶斯统计分析Key words
landslide/geological disaster/I-D curve/critical rainfall/Bayesian inference分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
沈军,方琼,吴贤云,曹思沁..湖南古丈山体滑坡影响因子分析[J].气象,2017,43(11):1410-1419,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41305056)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955901)共同资助 （41305056）
