现代电力2018，Vol.35Issue(1)：45-54,10.
规模化电动汽车充电负荷的预测及其对电网的影响
Forecasting the Charging Load of Large-scale Electric Vehicle and Its Impact on the Power Grid
摘要
Abstract
Forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of charging load of electric vehicle is the precondition of studying its charging effect on power grid,which is the foundation and basis of power grid planning and scheduling. Based on the influencing factors analysis of the charging load,a hierarchical division of the predicting area is pro-posed,and the model of describing vehicles'travelling rules is built based on transition probability matrix according to its travel chain characteristics of main vehicles in different functional lands.According to the randomness and uncer-tainty of user charging behavior,the probability of vehicles charging at different destinations is established by applying fuzzy reasoning method and probability statistics method, and the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate charging load of different functional lands.In the end,taking a cer-tain area of city A as an example,its future charging load is forecasted,spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the area is obtained.In addition,the effects of char-ging load in different charging places on the power grid are analyzed.关键词
电动汽车/充电负荷预测/出行规律/蒙特卡洛模拟/时空特性Key words
electric vehicle/charging load forecasting/trav-el patterns/Monte Carlo simulation/spatial and temporal distribution分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
苏小林,张艳娟,武中,阎晓霞..规模化电动汽车充电负荷的预测及其对电网的影响[J].现代电力,2018,35(1):45-54,10.基金项目
国网山西省电力公司科技项目(520533160001) （520533160001）
