广东电力2018，Vol.31Issue(2)：51-57,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2018.002.008
一种短期光伏出力的区间预测方法
A Prediction Method for Short-term PV Output Intervals
摘要
Abstract
In allusion to the problem that deterministic point prediction can't meet the requirement for dispatching of the large-scale PV grid-connection in precision,this paper presents a kind of prediction method for PV output intervals.Consid-ering strong fluctuation characteristics of original data of PV power,it adopts the variational modal decomposition (VMD) method to decompose the original data into several sub-sequences,and according to sample entropy theory,it reorganizes the sub-sequences with higher complexity into the fluctuating component.Then by means of Gaussian process regression(GPR), it makes a prediction on this component so as to obtain its fluctuation interval.In consideration of inherent defects of GPR, the paper uses crisscross optimization (CSO)algorithm to improve the optimization process of super parameters.It regards the other sub-sequences with lower complexity as stable components of PV output and directly uses support vector machine (SVM)method for deterministic prediction.Finally,by reconstructing predictive values of various components,it obtains prediction results of PV output intervals.关键词
区间预测/变分模态分解/纵横交叉算法(CSO)/高斯过程回归(GPR)/支持向量机(SVM)Key words
interval prediction/variational modal decomposition/crisscross optimization/Gaussian process regression/sup-port vector machine分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈云龙,殷豪,孟安波,欧晓峰,刘哲..一种短期光伏出力的区间预测方法[J].广东电力,2018,31(2):51-57,7.基金项目
广东省科技计划项目(2016A010104016) （2016A010104016）
广东电网有限责任公司科技项目(GDKLQQ20152066) （GDKLQQ20152066）
