海洋开发与管理2018，Vol.35Issue(2)：3-6,4.
基于GM(1,1)模型的海洋经济发展预测研究
Prediction of Marine Economic Development Based on GM (1,1)Model
摘要
Abstract
Gross domestic marine product data of 2001-2016 were selected,and the gray predic-tion method was used to establish the model of marine economic development prediction,i.e.GM (1,1)in this paper.The accuracy of the model was tested by the residual test,the correlation de-gree test and the post test difference test.At the same time,the model was used to predict the known year data and compared with the actual value.The results showed that the accuracy of the model was high,and it had reliability for short-term prediction.The gross domestic marine product data of 2017-2021 was calculated and predicted,and the conclusion was drawn that the marine economy of our country would maintain a steady growth in future.关键词
海洋经济/经济发展预测/海洋生产总值/灰色预测法/GM(1,1)模型Key words
Marine economy/Economic development forecast/Gross domestic marine product/Gray prediction/GM (1,1)model分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
李梁虹,董月娥..基于GM(1,1)模型的海洋经济发展预测研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2018,35(2):3-6,4.基金项目
国家海洋局资助项目"全国海洋主体功能区配套政策及有关专题研究"(Y21702011) （Y21702011）
国家海洋技术中心科技创新基金项目"我国近岸海洋开发强度评价技术研究:以市县级为单元"(Y21700406). （Y21700406）
