南京理工大学学报（自然科学版）2018，Vol.42Issue(1)：18-25,8.DOI:10.14177/j.cnki.32-1397n.2018.42.01.003
基于时间序列模型的舰炮武器系统动态精度评估方法
Dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for shipboard artillery weapon system based on timing series modelling theories
刘德耀 1韩旭 2普仕凡2
作者信息
- 1. 中国人民解放军92941部队,辽宁 葫芦岛125001
- 2. 中国人民解放军91550部队,辽宁 大连116023
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To solve the issues of the defected theory basis and the distorted processing methods in dynamic accuracy test & evaluation fields for data processing of current shipboard artillery weapon system,one dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for shipboard artillery weapon system based on timing series modeling theories is brought forward.Firstly,the current situation of the dynamic accura-cy data processing methods in the shipboard artillery weapon systems is introduced,with correspond-ing problems discussed. The basic ideas of modeling and analyzing dynamic error series sampled from the shipboard artillery weapon system with timing series modeling theories are presented.On the basis of deeply researching on ARMA(Autoregressive moving average)/ARIMA(Autoregressive inte-grated moving average)modeling methods and ARCH(Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) series modeling methods,the detailed algorithm of dynamic accuracy evaluation by ARIMA and GARCH(Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity)ways is presented.Taking the data analysis and process on practical angular altitude dynamic error series of the shipboard artillery weapon system as an example,the detailed running procedures of using dynamic accuracy evaluation methodology for the shipboard artillery weapon system based on timing series modeling theories in the paper are presented.Comparison and analysis results on the model and practical data show that the approaches brought forward in the paper are feasible,and can be taken as an effective way to solve the corresponding issues in the dynamic accuracy test and evaluation fields of the shipboard artillery weapon systems.关键词
时间序列/舰炮武器系统/动态精度/自回归滑动平均/差分自回归滑动平均/广义自回归条件异方差Key words
timing series/shipboard artillery weapon system/dynamic accuracy/autoregressive moving average/autoregressive integrated moving average/generalized autoregressive conditional het-eroscedasticity分类
军事科技引用本文复制引用
刘德耀,韩旭,普仕凡..基于时间序列模型的舰炮武器系统动态精度评估方法[J].南京理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2018,42(1):18-25,8.
