热带气象学报2018，Vol.34Issue(1)：78-86,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2018.01.008
基于GRAPES-CMAQ的中山市空气质量预报系统预报效果评估
ASSESSMENTS OF FORECAST PRODUCTS OF AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM BASED ON GRAPES-CMAQ IN ZHONGSHAN CITY
摘要
Abstract
In this study,forecast products for 2016,including AQI level,primary pollutant,and PM2.5 and O3 concentrations,from an air quality forecasting system based on GRAPES-CMAQ model in Zhongshan city are assessed with the observations.The annual average TS score of forecasted AQI level was up to 0.66 and the best scores were found in June and July.When the observed AQI level was the first-class,the TS score was up to 0.84,but the TS score dropped evidently when the air pollution got worse,indicating that the model still could not give good performance in severe air pollution events.The annual average TS scores for the forecast of primary pollutants of O3,PM and NO2 were 0.21,0.24 and 0.24,respectively.The PO for O3 and NO2 were up to 0.78 and 0.76,respectively,while the FAR for PM was 0.71.The annual average forecasted PM2.5 concentration was a little overestimated compared to the observations and the correlation coefficient was 0.59 for the whole year.However,the performances of the model were not stable among the months with heavy haze pollution.The correlation coefficient for O3 was 0.7 in 2016,and the coefficient of July to November with severe O3 pollution were all over 0.5.The forecasted O3 concentrations were all underestimated in these five months.An O3 pollution case during 2nd to 7th October 2016 was studied based on the forecasted data of GRAPES.It was found that the rainfall area and intensity in Pearl River Delta as well as the wind speed were all overestimated by GRPAES in the day time,leading to the underestimation of forecasted O3 concentrations in this event.关键词
环境气象/空气质量/GRAPES-CMAQ/评估/O3Key words
environmental meteorology/air quality/GRAPES-CMAQ/assessment/O3分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
麦健华,于玲玲,邓涛,蒋争明,汤沛,刘江顺..基于GRAPES-CMAQ的中山市空气质量预报系统预报效果评估[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(1):78-86,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41775037) （41775037）
中山市科技计划项目(2015B2349) （2015B2349）
广东省气象局科技创新团队计划项目(201704)共同资助 （201704）
