沙漠与绿洲气象2018，Vol.12Issue(1)：71-75,5.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2018.01.010
2011年江西汛期降水低频分量的延伸期预报试验
Extended Range Forecast of Low-Frequency Rains over the Jiangxi Province in Summer of 2011
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily rainfall series and 850 hPa meridional wind of the NCEP reanalysis data from February to August in 2011,a multivariable lagged regressive(MLR)model was constructed.The model was applied to do the daily extended forecast of low frequency rainfall over Jiangxi Area from May to July.The results show that there are two distinct oscillations in Jiangxi which are about 10-30 days and 50-70 days respectively.The predictive skill of the 50-70 days low-frequency rainfalls is distinctly better then that of the 10-30 days.The forecast score of 50-70 days low frequency rainfall is up to 86%,which is able to accurately predict the positive and negative phase conversion of low frequency rainfall.This can provide extended range forecast signal for the heavy rainfall process in Jiangxi.关键词
延伸期预报/低频降水/MLR模型Key words
extended range forecast/low frequency rainfall/multivariable lagged regressive (MLR)model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张超美,宋进波,章毅之,马锋敏,谢佳杏,吴姗姗..2011年江西汛期降水低频分量的延伸期预报试验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(1):71-75,5.基金项目
2016年江西省气象局重点项目(动力气候模式产品在月季温度降水预测中的降尺度应用研究)、2016年江西省重点项目(延伸期(16-30天)逐日预报技术研究和业务建立)、江西省科学技术厅指导性计划项目(2013ZBBG70022)共同资助. （动力气候模式产品在月季温度降水预测中的降尺度应用研究）
