中国舰船研究2018，Vol.13Issue(1)：60-64,113,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-3185.2018.01.009
基于GM(1,N)模型的碳钢腐蚀速率预测
GM(1,N)model- based prediction of carbon steel corrosion rate
摘要
Abstract
[Objectives]The corrosion rate prediction of carbon steel in marine environment is very complicated and uncertain.[Methods]To improve the accuracy of prediction model in view of the low precision of grey prediction model for corrosion rate of carbon steel at present stage,the key factors which affect the corrosion rate can be concluded from the grey theory analysis of marine environment and corrosion rate of carbon steel,and then the GM(1,N)model which can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel is established.[Results]According to the case analysis,the main factors that affect the corrosion rate in seaareas of Qindao, Xiamen, Zhousan, Yulin coastal region are seawater temperature, biofouling, pH value and salinity,and based on the above,the establishment of GM(1,5)model possesses higher precision and less computational costs.[Conclusions]The research shows that the GM(1,N)model can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel effectively, and also provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of residual life of carbon steel.关键词
GM(1,N)模型/腐蚀速率/剩余寿命/碳钢/灰色理论Key words
GM(1/N)model/corrosion rate/residual life/carbon steel/grey theory分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
郑如炎,彭飞,牟金磊..基于GM(1,N)模型的碳钢腐蚀速率预测[J].中国舰船研究,2018,13(1):60-64,113,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51309231) （51309231）
海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(20161595) （20161595）
