摘要
Abstract
Using grey model theory,taking discontinuous forest resources index of Hengxian during 1990-2014 as the time serial data,non equi-distant grey prediction model was established by analyzing Hengxian forest area land,forest area(forest),forest coverage rate and total stumpage volume changes using MATLAB software.According to fitting value of each index of the fitting equation from 1990 to 2014,the fitting error of stumpage was 10.14% and 11.70% except in 1999,2009,the fitting error was less than 10.00%,the fitting result was better.The variance ratio C were less than 0.35,small error probability P=1,prediction level was one-grade.The prediction results showed that changes of forest resources form 2017 to 2030 in addition to the woodland area decreased slightly,the other was a growing trend,but the forest land area,forest area,forest coverage rate of the relative change rate was less than 1%,while net growth rates of the total stumpage volume compared to 2017 were 6.02%, 17.15%,29.83%.In recent years,Hengxian forest resources protection measures were relatively appropriate,forest resources protection and forest resources management effect was significant.关键词
森林资源/非等间距序列/灰色模型预测/横县Key words
Forest resource/Non-equidistance sequence/Grey mode forecast/Hengxian分类
农业科技
