南水北调与水利科技2017，Vol.15Issue(6)：17-25,44,10.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.06.003
基于TIGGE数据的中期降水预报在江苏省的应用效果评估
Assessment of TIGGE medium-term precipitation forecast in Jiangsu Province
摘要
Abstract
The 14-day medium range precipitation forecast is important for drought and flood forecasting and water resources scheduling management.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) provides basic data for regional medium range ensemble precipitation prediction.Based on the ensemble forecasts of CMA,CMC,ECMWF,JMA and NCEP in the TIGGE datasets in Jiangsu Province,we evaluated their medium-range precipitation forecast results.We mainly used such evalu ation methods as the TS,BS,mean absolute deviation,and mean square root error.The results showed that the forecast scores of light and moderate rain during the entire forecast period were all relatively high.The light rain had the highest TS (mostly a round 0.5) statistically.However,there were obvious missing reports of precipitations above the moderate level.For the 15-day forecast of daily cumulative rainfall,there was only a 3-day decay period,after which all the error indicators remained stable.The prediction bias in a lead time of over 3 days was mainly overprediction.Meanwhile,the cumulative rainfall forecast of over 5 days was significantly larger than the actual value.The forecast effect was the best in winter and the worst in summer,and the effect in northern Jiangsu was better than that in southern Jiangsu.Across the five representative modes,the ECMWF and JMA modes respectively showed the best performance in rainfall categorical forecast and daily cumulative rainfall forecast.关键词
TIGGE/中期降水预报/TS与BS评分/降水量级/江苏省Key words
TIGGE/medium-term precipitation/TS and BS score/precipitation level/Jiangsu Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杜雅玲,陆桂华,吴志勇,何海..基于TIGGE数据的中期降水预报在江苏省的应用效果评估[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(6):17-25,44,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51579065) （51579065）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301040 （）
201301070) （）
全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201161) （201161）
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0842).National Natural Science Foundation of China (51579065) （NCET-12-0842）
Special Fund for Public Welfare Research of Ministry of Water Resources (201301040 （）
201301070) （）
A Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China (201161) （201161）
Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of Ministry of Education (NCET-12-0842) （NCET-12-0842）
