农业现代化研究2018，Vol.39Issue(2)：248-255,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2018.0011
山东省县域粮食生产格局演变及其影响因素
Spatio-temporal dynamics of grain production in Shandong Province and its impacting factors at county-level
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of county grain yield in Shandong Province from 1995 to 2015, and applying the methods of ESDA, center of gravity migration, multiple regression models, this paper analyzed the evolution and spatial pattern of grain production in Shandong Province. The authors further explored key factors that affected changes of grain production pattern using multiple regression models. The results show that the grain yield of Shandong Province fluctuated greatly during the study period. It decreased from 42.45 million tons in 1995 to 32.93 million tons in 2002. The production had grew for 13 consecutive years, reached 47.13 million tons in 2015. At the county scale, the spatial agglomeration of grain production increased continuously. The output in the western region increased obviously faster than that in the eastern region. The center of gravity had moved significantly westwards. The results indicate that the total power of agricultural machinery, effectively irrigated area and the total population at the end of the year have a significant positive impact on grain output. In contrast GDP per capita and rural electricity consumption had a negative impact on grain production. Lastly, some suggestions such as strengthening the construction of high-standard farmland, promoting the proper scale development of land and establishing the compensation mechanism for the interests of major grain-producing counties were put forward to sustain the grain production capacity.关键词
粮食生产/格局变迁/影响因素/地理集聚/适度规模Key words
grain production/pattern change/impact factors/geographical agglomeration/moderate scale分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李明杰,王国刚,张红日..山东省县域粮食生产格局演变及其影响因素[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(2):248-255,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41401203).National Natural Science Foundation of China(41401203). （41401203）
