农业现代化研究2018，Vol.39Issue(2)：256-264,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0124
中国畜牧业生产波动的特征及路径识别
Fluctuation characteristics and path identification of the livestock industry in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the annual output data of livestock and poultry products from 1978 to 2016 in China and the HP filter technology and the nonlinear MS-AR model, this paper analyzed the fluctuation characteristics and path identification of the livestock industry in China and explored the reasons for the fluctuation and path transformation of livestock production. Results show that the peak period of growth of pork production appeared first, followed by beef, lamb, poultry meats and poultry eggs, and the peak period of milk production growth appeared later. The fluctuation range of pork production was the smallest, while the fluctuations of production in other industries were relatively large. There were differences among the production fluctuation trends of different industries, but showing a converging trend in recent years. The production of livestock and poultry products can be divided into three zones, including low speed, middle speed, and fast speed. The average growth rate of livestock and poultry products was about 3% and 5% under the low and middle speed growth zone systems, and the average growth rate of livestock and poultry products was about 10% under the fast growth zone system. Pork production tends to maintain a moderate growth, and beef and lamb productions tend to stay at the low speed and moderate speed growth. The growth rates of poultry meats and poultry eggs were relatively stable in all districts, and milk production tends to stay at the middle and low speeds. The livestock industry, in addition to milk production, was basically in the low or moderate growth zone system for the longest period. Based on the above analysis, this paper provides the following suggestions: formulating different regulatory policies according to the different livestock industries in different stages, promoting the scale production of livestock and poultry and the level of industrial management, and improving the anti-shock ability of the livestock and poultry industries.关键词
畜牧业/生产波动/路径识别/HP滤波/MS-AR模型Key words
livestock industry/production fluctuation/path identification/HP filtering/MS-AR model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
丁存振,肖海峰..中国畜牧业生产波动的特征及路径识别[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(2):256-264,9.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-39-22).China Agriculture Research System(CARS-39-22). （CARS-39-22）
