气象2017，Vol.43Issue(12)：1461-1472,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.12.002
基于动力降尺度的区域集合预报初值扰动构建方法研究
Study on Initial Perturbation Construction Method for Regional Ensemble Forecast Based on Dynamical Downscaling
摘要
Abstract
Using Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) data,a regional ensemble forecast system based on WRF model is constructed.Two initialization schemes are tested to form the initial states of regional ensemble (namely D-RUC ensemble).One is the direct dynamical downscaling of GEFS initial states (namely DOWN ensemble),and the other is the overlaying the downscaled initial perturbations of GEFS onto the analysis of high resolution regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) system,named Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC) system.Using the two methods,a series of ensemble forecast tests are conducted,and the results show that the small-scale components of D-RUC perturbations grow more rapidly than those of DOWN perturbations.For short-term forecast,the DOWN perturbations tend to underestimate the forecast error while the D-RUC perturbation tends to identify where the forecast error is large and where the forecast error is small.Ensemble forecast verification shows that the D-RUC ensemble has larger spread and smaller root mean square error than DOWN ensemble at short forecast lead time,and the probabilistic scores of D-RUC are also better for short-term forecast.Typical precipitation case study shows that D-RUC ensemble can provide better probabilistic precipitation forecast than DOWN ensemble.关键词
区域集合预报/动力降尺度/初值扰动Key words
regional ensemble forecast/dynamical downscaling/initial condition perturbation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张涵斌,李玉焕,范水勇,仲跻芹,卢冰..基于动力降尺度的区域集合预报初值扰动构建方法研究[J].气象,2017,43(12):1461-1472,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41605082,91437113)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506005)和国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B01)共同资助 （41605082,91437113）
