气象2017，Vol.43Issue(12)：1517-1526,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.12.007
四川盆地区域性暴雨时空变化特征及其前兆信号研究
Characteristics of Regional Rainstorm in Sichuan Basin and Its Precursor Signal
摘要
Abstract
The regional rainstorm of Sichuan Basin is classified using the data from meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,NOAA SST data,snow days of Tibet Plateau,and the method of MTM-SVD (multi-taper method-singular value decomposition).Not only the characteristics of spatio-temporal variation but also the previous signal is discussed.The results show that the regional rainstorm of Sichuan Basin can be divided into three types,which are the west basin,northeast basin and south basin respectively.The most significant interannual variation is the quasi-3-year cycle which reflects the abnormal circulation process of west basin type with the weak-adjustment-strong pattern.The quasi16-year cycle is the obvious interdecadal signal which embodies the exception evolution of the northeast basin and south basin.Through the analysis of cooperative change,it is found that the ENSO event and snow cover days in the previous winter are the strong precursor signal in the quasi-3-year cycle.In the quasi-16-year oscillation process,the PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) acts as a previous signal of the northeast basin type and south basin type.关键词
四川盆地/区域性暴雨/前兆信号Key words
Sichuan Basin/regional rainstorm/precursor signal分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王春学,马振峰,王佳津,张顺谦,秦宁生,邓彪..四川盆地区域性暴雨时空变化特征及其前兆信号研究[J].气象,2017,43(12):1517-1526,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41275097)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306022)、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室(2017-青年-08)和川气课题(重08-04)共同资助 （41275097）
