气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：1-14,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.001
豫北“7·9”特大暴雨的短期预报分析和反思
Rethink on Short-Range Forecast of the 9 July Severe Rainstorm in Northern Henan
摘要
Abstract
After a careful rethink on short-range forecast of the northern Henan severe rainstorm on 9 July 2016,we found that there existed obvious alternate growing and merging of convective clouds during this rainstorm event involving interaction of meso-small scale systems.As important guidance,all global models,including deterministic and ensemble ones,failed to provide effective forecasts or hints in advance for this event.High resolution regional models and rapid refresh systems performed better and could help forecasters to predict heavy or very heavy rainfall events in northern Henan 12 h or 6 h earlier.Reasons for the forecast failure of this severe rainstorm process are that forecasters relied too much on global models and were lack of experience on high resolution model application or confidence in products from high resolution models.Only more comprehensive trainings on high resolution model for forecasters before putting them into use could forecasters maximize their operational potential.Applying more probabilistic products gradually in QPF decision process would meet the trend of technological advance and could provide more effective supports for heavy or extreme rainfall forecasting.关键词
特大暴雨/短期预报/预报反思/高分辨区域数值模式Key words
severe rainstorm/short-range forecast/forecast rethink/high resolution regional model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
漆梁波,徐珺..豫北“7·9”特大暴雨的短期预报分析和反思[J].气象,2018,44(1):1-14,14.基金项目
中国气象局暴雨专家创新团队专项(CMACXTD002-3)、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017) 1A]和上海市气象局研究型专项(YJ201601)共同资助 （CMACXTD002-3）
