气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：26-41,16.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.003
北京几次弱降水过程预报失误分析
Analysis of Unsuccessful Forecasts of Several Weak Rainfall Processes in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
The public weather forecasts were not so correct for the time period from winter 2011 to early spring 2012 in Beijing.Of the nine weak precipitation processes (WPPs),four cases were false alarms,two were missed and three were better forecasted.Through the forecast verification,synoptic analysis and comparison of model forecasts for the nine processes,following results are achieved.The synoptic conditions of WPPs in Beijing vary case by case.The weather patterns at 500 hPa can be classified into three categories:patterns of two-troughs one-ridge,one-trough two-ridges and one-trough one-ridge.The surface situation can be classified into four patterns,which are cold front,occluded front in North China,the easterly wind and inverted trough and the eastward returning current.Most WPPs are characterized by poor vapor conditions in lower troposphere or weak dynamic lifting conditions.For the WPP with thinner wet layer,higher vapor saturation layer and higher lifting condensation layer,numerical prediction models tend to give false alarm;for the WPP with favorable vapor condition at low level,lower vapor saturation layer and lower lifting condensation layer,the models are prone to omission.The subjective precipitation forecast errors are mainly because forecasters did not sufficiently understand the structures of the weather systems and their developing mechanisms.Besides,they were lack of correction experiences for the model boundary water vapor and lifting conditions,which are critical factors for rainfalls.关键词
弱降水过程/空报/漏报/预报检验/低层水汽Key words
weak precipitation process (WPP)/false alarm of WPP/miss of WPP/forecast verification/low-level water vapor分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孙军,马学款,代刊,符娇兰,董林,秦华锋,董全..北京几次弱降水过程预报失误分析[J].气象,2018,44(1):26-41,16.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306011)资助 （气象）
本文得到中国气象局暴雨预报专家创新团队(项目编号CMACXTD002-3)的支持 （项目编号CMACXTD002-3）
感谢中国气象局数值预报中心的王雨提供降水预报检验部分结果. （）
