气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：42-52,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.004
2016年9月4日下午“杭州G20峰会”期间短时阵雨天气成因与预报难点
Mechanism and Forecasting Difficulties of the Afternoon Convective Shower on 4 September 2016 During the Period of "Hangzhou G20 Summit"
摘要
Abstract
At about 16:00 BT 4 September 2016 the urban area of Hangzhou,West Lake and the surrounding area received a sudden convective shower,which caused great impacts on preparation related to "Hangzhou G20 Summit".This paper analyzes the mechanism of the shower,and discusses limitations of shorttime forecasting and difficulties of nowcasting.The results indicate that the mainly focusing convection system at that time over Ningbo,eastern Hangzhou area,and Shaoxing did not directly affect Hangzhou City,and eastward-moving synoptic-scale upper trough system did not affected this area either.However,under the weakly statically unstable conditions,the shower was produced by a shallow convective system which was triggered by an afternoon sea breeze front with a dry line in the northwest Hangzhou Bay.As this convective system had some characteristics such as small spatial scale,short life,rapid movement,low cloud top,weak reflectivity and intensive rainfall intensity,together with a large number of high-level cirrus clouds which cannot effectively be discriminated from cumulus over Hangzhou and the surrounding area in the satellite images,the ability of weather radar and stationary meteorological satellite monitoring the system was weakened significantly,so that nowcasting the shower is also very difficult if only using these two types of observations.Therefore,it is crucial to use automatic weather station data with high spatiotemporal resolutions to analyze the environmental conditions for nowcasting the type of shallow convective weather systems.关键词
短时阵雨/浅对流/配料法/成因/预报难点Key words
convective shower/shallow convective system/ingredients-based method/mechanism/forecasting difficulties分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张涛,郑永光,毛旭,郑沛群,朱文剑,林隐静..2016年9月4日下午“杭州G20峰会”期间短时阵雨天气成因与预报难点[J].气象,2018,44(1):42-52,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)和国家自然科学基金项目(41375051)共同资助 （973计划）
