气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：65-79,15.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.006
上海地区春季最高气温预报失败案例分析
Analysis of the Spring Maximum 2 m Temperature Forecast Failure in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Based on conventional surface and upper air observation data,the synoptic-scale circulation of the maximum 2 m temperature forecast failure in Shanghai during 17-18 March 2015 is analyzed.Using the real-time observations and numerical weather predictions,the causes of the forecast failure are investigated.The results show that the failure of the cloud cover forecast on 17 March was the main cause for the forecast failure.Meanwhile,the enhanced southeast winds further enlarged the forecast error.On 18 March,the misforecasted occurrence time of cold air advection into Shanghai mainly accounted for the forecast failure.The problems and recommendations in the forecast process were addressed,with the emphasis on the discrepancies between the real-time observations and the forecasts,forecast jumpiness and forecast uncertainty.Forecasters should have paid more attention to the real-time local and upstream observations,and different lead-time forecasts from different models.More important,operational ensemble forecasts in a probabilistic sense were highly recommended instead of traditional deterministic forecasts of a single model.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically assess the ensemble forecast performance,develop new application and interpretation of NWP products,and provide more products of multi-model ensemble forecasts with uncertainty information in public weather services.关键词
最高气温/预报失败案例/预报误差/集合预报/不确定性Key words
maximum 2 m temperature/forecast failure/forecast error/ensemble forecast/uncertainty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孙敏,袁慧玲,杜予罡..上海地区春季最高气温预报失败案例分析[J].气象,2018,44(1):65-79,15.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206005)和国家自然科学基金项目(41675109)共同资助 （973计划）
