气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：80-92,13.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.007
山东省初秋一次大范围强对流过程落区和抬升触发机制分析
Analysis of an Extensive Severe Convection Falling Area and Lifting Trigger Mechanism in Early Autumn at Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
Conventional observations,encryption automatic weather station,Doppler weather radar,windprofiling radar and NCEP reanalysis data are identified and examined to analyze the extensive severe convection falling area and lifting trigger mechanism in Shandong on 11 September 2016.The results show that under the influence of upper trough,unstable atmospheric stratification occurred over the regions whether or not convections,severe convective cloud cluster spread everywhere in the environments characterized by large convective available potential energy (CAPE) and little convective inhibition (CIN),thus the trigger of lifting become the key factor for severe convection's occurrence.Lifting trigger mechanism was organized by surface convergence line,dry line,sea-breeze front and gust flow.Because of the little convective inhibition,lifting force could be relatively weak causing various thunderstorm lifting mechanisms in different regions.Surface convergence line lifting caused the severe convection in Northwest Shandong,and the combination of sea-breeze front and cold front caused the severe convection in Shandong Peninsula.Gust front of the preexisting thunderstorm cold pool boundary was the reason of severe convection in midland Shandong,while the interaction of dry line and surface convergence line caused the severe convection in Southeast Shandong.The magnitude of convergence line lifting force which can be measured by boundary's divergence was a consequential element.Under the condition of the surface convergence line,mesoscale boundary of mass in different temperature and humidity became the determining factor of thunderstorm trigger.The omissive forecast of the southeast low-level flow in short-term forecast which was a key mesoscale system caused the deviation of the forecast falling area.So,adjustment trend of model forecast in different initial times and seasons are the major reasons for the less intense forecast.Experience indicates that improving the correction ability of numerical model by analyzing a large number of cases is an effective method to raise the forecasting accuracy.关键词
初秋强对流/落区/抬升触发机制/中尺度边界/订正数值模式Key words
severe convection in early autumn/falling area/lifting trigger mechanism/mesoscale boundary/correction numerical model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
侯淑梅,王秀明,尉英华,李婕,张骞,谷山青..山东省初秋一次大范围强对流过程落区和抬升触发机制分析[J].气象,2018,44(1):80-92,13.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2016DM20)、2016年中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160208)及山东省气象局课题(2016sdqxz01和2014sdqxm21)共同资助 （ZR2016DM20）
