气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：93-106,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.008
高空西北气流下特大暴雨的预报误差分析及思考
Forecast Error Analysis of Extremely Heavy Rain Under High-Level Northwest Flow
摘要
Abstract
By using conventional and non-conventional meteorological data,numerical prediction model,GFS reanalysis data (0.5°×0.5°),the environment features and model errors of extremely heavy rain under northwest flow which happened on 19 June 2016 in northern Jiangxi are analyzed.Compared with the similar situation,some possible causes of the prediction error are found out,such as the deviation of southward northwest dry-and-cold air,the speed of the subtropical high,the strengthening and convergence of the southwest low-level-jet,short-wave trough from upstream and abnormal moisture conditions.Even more,the prediction of rain belt by ECMWF was northward and much lighter than observation.Finally the forecasting methods of severe heavy rain are given.关键词
特大暴雨/误差/西北气流/低空急流/概念模型Key words
extremely heavy rain/error/northwest flow/low-level jet/conceptual prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑婧,许爱华,孙素琴,许彬..高空西北气流下特大暴雨的预报误差分析及思考[J].气象,2018,44(1):93-106,14.基金项目
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-036和CMAYBY2017-038)共同资助 （CMAYBY2016-036和CMAYBY2017-038）
