气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：118-131,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.010
一次突发性暴雨的机理分析及短期预报思考
Mechanism Analysis and Rethinking of Short-Term Prediction of a Sudden Rainstorm
摘要
Abstract
A sudden rainstorm process happened in Tianjin on 4 September 2015.The analysis based on various observation data showed that the southerly flow met with the northeast wind at the bottom of the high pressure,forming the convergence in the mountain front and triggering thunderstorm.After the thunderstorm was formed,the "backward propagation" mechanism formed,matching up the southerly wind in the mid-low level,and forming the south-north "train effect" which led to the happening of heavy rainfall.The precipitation caused by upper trough developed into the cool pool near the surface layer.The divergence flow met the easterly flow,triggering the new thunderstorm in the downstream of precipitation area.This "forward propagation mechanism" made the rain belt move faster than that of upper trough.And when the divergence flow met with the easterly flow,small-scale convergence cyclonic circulation formed,making the precipitation increase in front of the convergence line.After the upper-trough precipitation moved across the urban area,due to the meso-γ scale convergence effect,which triggered the formation of meso-γ scale convective cloud,the heavy precipitation once again appeared in the urban area of Tianjin City.During the short-term forecasting,besides the analysis of large-scale environmental background,forecasters only considered the precipitation field from mesoscale model,ignoring the analysis of mesoscale environmental field.The results showed that although there is deviation between the precipitation from model and observed precipitation,the prediction of the mesoscale environmental field could provide reference for the prediction of sudden heavy rainfall in the short period of time (24 h).关键词
突发性暴雨/地形抬升/列车效应/小尺度气旋/前向传播/中尺度环境场/短期预报Key words
sudden heavy precipitation/terrain uplift/train effect/small-scale cyclone/forward propagation mechanism/mesoscale environmental field/short-term forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张楠,杨晓君,邱晓滨,刘一玮,杨洋..一次突发性暴雨的机理分析及短期预报思考[J].气象,2018,44(1):118-131,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41575049和41675046)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41305088)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAY-BY2016-006和CMAYBY2017-005)、天津市气象局重点项目(201723zdxm04)及天津市气象局气象预报预警创新团队共同资助 （41575049和41675046）
