气象2018，Vol.44Issue(1)：151-158,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.013
北京2016年“11·20"初雪预报偏差分析
Forecast Deviation Analysis of the First Snow in Beijing on 20 November 2016
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyses the forecast deviation of the first snow in 2016 in Beijing using EC reanalysis data and wind profiling radar from 19 to 21 November 2016.The conclusions are as follows.(1) The deficiency of "cold wedge",the location of shear line at 850 hPa by south and the lack of whole layer precipitable water caused the total snowfall amount less than that of the forecast.(2) There are four reasons for the less snowfall amount in urban areas of Beijing.That is,the convergence of water vapor flux was weak,the time for rain to turn into snow was 3 hours later than that of the forecast,the saturation in the layer from-18 to-9℃ was insufficient,and the precipitation weather system had passed through Beijing after rain turned into snow.(3) The slow falling of the 0℃ layer height was due to the failing formation of "cold wedge",and the strong warm advection in low levels.At the same time,the similar weather examples are compared in this paper.When it refers to the phenomenon of rain into snow and the insufficient saturation at high levels,the 0℃ layer height should still be considered in forecasting the time of rain into snow.When the 0℃ layer height drops to lower than 100 m,rain can turn into sleet and snow.关键词
相态转换/0℃层高度/降雪Key words
phase transformation/0℃ layer height/snowfall分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
翟亮,郭淳薇,马新成,赵玮,雷蕾,郭金兰..北京2016年“11·20"初雪预报偏差分析[J].气象,2018,44(1):151-158,8.基金项目
北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ201506001)、北京市自然科学基金项目(8172023)和国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41605110)共同资助 （BMBKJ201506001）
