人口与经济Issue(2)：104-113,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2018.02.010
老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究
Societal Ageing,Precautionary Motive and Household Saving Rate:Empirical Analysis on China's Second Population Dividend
摘要
Abstract
Ageing has both precaution effects and negative effects from the perspective of life cycle consumption theory on savings and thus its net effects on Chinese families is unclear so far.This paper empirically investigates the relationship between age structure and saving rate of Chinese families using China Family Panel Studies datasets.The results demonstrate that ageing has significantly positive effects on families' saving rate, meaning that the proactive and precaution savings incurred by ageing is bigger than the negative effects pointed out by life cycle consumption theory.Therefore, China could reap the second demographic dividend.Moreover, ageing has significantly positive effects on both whether families choose to save and how much to save.In the robust analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of ageing on three different kinds of savings, saving rate, consumption and consumption rate and gets consistent results.Moreover, the above conclusion is supported by the sub-sample analysis on different income status families, urban and rural families and families in different regions.Furthermore,the effects of ageing are smaller on the higher income families.And the effect is larger for the urban families and eastern families than the families in the rural families and middle-western families.These results implied that the positive impact of ageing on micro saving rate might come from the second population dividend.关键词
老龄化/预防动机/微观家庭储蓄率/第二次人口红利Key words
ageing/precaution effect/micro saving rate of families/second population dividend分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李超,罗润东..老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018,(2):104-113,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"老龄化条件下家庭人力资本投资的代际合作与竞争关系研究"(71573158) （71573158）
山东省自然科学基金项目"老龄化背景下年长劳动力与年轻劳动力就业中的竞争性与互补性研究"(ZR2014GM004) （ZR2014GM004）
