上海管理科学2017，Vol.39Issue(6)：25-28,4.
银行ATM设备业务总量的时序特征分析及预测
Research and Prediction on Time-Sequence Characteristics of the Total Banking Automatic Teller Machine Business
韦金香 1张建同1
作者信息
- 1. 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the time-sequence characteristics of the total banking ATM equipment business and predict the number of the business.Firstly,we map the banking ATM equipment 30 days of total trend diagram by taking the data of ten minutes interval.It is found that it has a significant periodicity,perturbation and multi-peak.Then we set up a time-sequence distribution model of total ATM equipment business base on the data of day interval and solve the mode by simulated annealing algorithm (SA).We divided the total amount of ATM equipment of the daily banking system into eight segments according to its characteristics,and eliminating the multi-peak of the total time series of the total business.Finally we forecast the total volume of the business through the Holt-Winters model and use the first period data for verification.And we get the 95％ confidence interval of the first period business.The results of this paper provide a basis for judging the operation status of the equipment in the bank data monitoring center.关键词
时序分布模型/模拟退火/Holt-Winters模型/运行状态Key words
time-sequence distribution model/SA/Holt-Winters model/operation status分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
韦金香,张建同..银行ATM设备业务总量的时序特征分析及预测[J].上海管理科学,2017,39(6):25-28,4.
