水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(2)：30-36,7.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.02.005
气候变化对河川径流量的影响——以皇甫川流域为例
Impact from climate change on amount of river runoff——a case of Huangfuchuan Watershed
摘要
Abstract
Based on the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test method,the long-term changing trends and the change-points of the precipitation,the mean temperature and the amount of runoff of Huangfuchuan Watershed of the Mid-Yellow River are tested,and then the causation of the sharp decrease of the runoff within the watershed is explored with both the methods of hydrological sensitivity analysis and precipitation-runoff correlative relation.From 1985 to 2006,the climate warming and drying trend is significant therein;in which the annual precipitation exhibits a decreasing trend,but it is not so significant,while the mean annual temperature presents a rising trend,which is far over the significance level ofα =0.05.Meanwhile,the amount of the annual runoff also shows a significant decreasing trend with the significance level of α =0.1.The testing result of the runoff change-points shows that significant changes of the runoffs of Huangfuchuan Watershed has occurred before and after 1998,i.e.,compared the natural period (1985-1998) with the period of the nnoff variation (1999-2006),the amount of the mean annual runoff has decreased by 60％.It is indicated through the relevant attribution analysis that the rate of the contribution from the factor of climate change to the mean annual runoff variation is 46％,which demonstrates that the climate change is an important factor for the decrease of the runoff.关键词
径流/气候变化/Mann-Kendall法/水文敏感性分析/降水—径流相关关系/皇甫川流域Key words
runoff/climate change/Mann-Kendall test method/hydrologic sensitivity analysis/precipitation-runoff correlative relation/Huangfuchuan Watershed分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡智丹,夏婷,罗琳,王忠静..气候变化对河川径流量的影响——以皇甫川流域为例[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(2):30-36,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51409159) （51409159）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201401008) （201401008）
