水利水电技术2018，Vol.49Issue(2)：139-143,5.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.02.021
灰色-马尔科夫模型在南俄5水电站大坝变形预测中的应用研究
Application of grey Markov model to deformation prediction of dam for Nam Ngum 5 Hydropower Station
摘要
Abstract
The prediction and analysis of the deformation of the dam for Nam Ngum 5 Hydropower Station are carried out with the gray-Markov prediction model,for which the accuracy of the deformation prediction from the model is further improved with the relevant data grouping technique.By taking the observed values of the surface horizontal displacement of the dam of Nam Ngum 5 Hydropower Station as the samples,the data those can be roughly fitted into the exponential function curve are grouped into one group,and then both the grouped cases and the ungrouped case are respectively considered for predicting their future values.Through the relevant comparison,it is found out that the relative error of the predicted value can be decreased into 11％ by reasonably grouping,thus the accuracy is improved obviously than before.From which,it is indicated that combining the grayMarkov prediction model with the appropriate data grouping technique has a better effect on the deformation prediction of dam.关键词
灰色-马尔科夫模型/大坝变形预测/南俄5水电站Key words
gray-Markov prediction model/dam deformation prediction/Nam Ngum 5 Hydropower Station分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
张英豪,刘晓青,宁昕扬..灰色-马尔科夫模型在南俄5水电站大坝变形预测中的应用研究[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(2):139-143,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601) （2016YFC0401601）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501033) （201501033）
