中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(12)：1-7,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170608
中国重点部门和行业碳排放总量控制目标及政策研究
Carbon emission cap control target and policy study of selected sectors and industries in China
摘要
Abstract
The control of greenhouse gas emissions in China now gradually transition from intensity target to cap since the 12th FYP.Especially in the economic new normal,China's carbon emissions are showing new characteristics.The 13th FYP has been proposed to promote Priority Development Zones,selected sectors and industries to take the lead on emissions reduction and peak,and the implementation of the Paris Agreement and National Determined Contributions also require the establishment of an emission peak and cap management regime after 2020.Based on a bottom-up Sector and Industry Integrated Assessment Model (SIAM),the study evaluated China's low carbon policy performances in 12th FYP,including selected sectors like industry,energy,building,transportation and selected industries like power,steel,building materials,chemicals,and then analysed the cap targets and policies of these sectors and industries.The results show that the total emissions of the three selectedsectors have an emission peak in 2014,but which is unstable.The industrial sector's energy consumption and carbon emissionwas generally stabilized,direct emissions have begun to decline.The building sector's energy consumption and carbon emission will be continuously grow,but with terminal electrification increased,direct emissions will also show a gentle trend.The transport sector's energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to rapidly grow.The four selected industries in 2014 also appeared an emission peak.The total emissions tend to stabilize or even decline in 13th FYP.The power industry's generation and emissions growth has been restored,but not higher than the peak in 12th FYP.With the demand goes down and overcapacity fades our,the steel and building materials industry's energy consumption and carbon emission declined slowly.The chemical Industry's energy consumption and carbon emission is expected to peak and slow down.关键词
碳排放总量/部门/行业/“十三五”规划Key words
carbon emission cap/sector/industry/13th FYP分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
柴麒敏,傅莎,郑晓奇,赵旭晨,徐华清..中国重点部门和行业碳排放总量控制目标及政策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(12):1-7,7.基金项目
中国清洁发展机制基金项目“主要缔约方2015协议下自主贡献的公平性和力度评估”(批准号:2014094) （批准号:2014094）
科技部改革发展专项研发项目“INDC及其全球盘点机制的影响及对策研究之巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”(批准号:YJ201603). （批准号:YJ201603）
