中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(12)：14-20,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170901
中国煤层气规模化开发的政策情景仿真
Scenario analysis of large-scale coalbed methane development in China
摘要
Abstract
Coalbed methane (CBM),which has great expectation on its further exploration and development,will be the available supplement of the conventional gas for China in the future.On the perspective of national energy security,large-scale CBM development is of practical significance to optimize Chinese national energy structure,to relieve the contradiction between energy supply and demand,and to realize the sustainable development of national economy.Based on the system dynamics theory,this paper simulated and predicted large-scale CBM development in China under three types of established situations,including the one of subsidies by amount improving situation,and the shale gas development competition situation,and the international oil prices situation.The results indicate that,firstly,the promotion of CBM subsidies by amount contributed to a 6％ to 8％ promotion of both consumption and ground pumping of CBM each year.Secondly,the commercial exploitation of shale gas has impacted CBM production to some extent,but no malignant effects have been done to its large-scale development,the common development of the two can effectively narrow the gap between supply and demand of conventional natural gas.Thirdly,the development of CBM resources under the pricing of calorific value transformation is under the dual influences of both international oil prices and the dollar exchange rate.They have greatly restricted the stability of CBM and weakened its functioning as the support of national energy security,and have even harmed the orderly and healthy development of China's CBM scale.Moreover,the development of CBM in China is relatively stable under the pricing of fluctuation influence,but the initial price of wellhead gas of CBM scale development is lower,which results in a sharp slowdown in the CBM development of large scale.In the light of the research conclusions above,and to ensure the smooth and efficient development of China's CBM scale development process,the following suggestions are given out in this paper:the subsidy level shall be risen and a compound subsidy mechanism shall be established;the CBM shall be developed and utilized ipso jure.关键词
煤层气/规模化开发/模拟仿真/系统动力学Key words
coalbed methane (CBM)/large-scale development/simulation/system dynamics分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴巧生,赵天宇,周娜..中国煤层气规模化开发的政策情景仿真[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(12):14-20,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目“页岩气和煤层气开发利用的能源安全效益、环境效益和其他社会效益评估”(批准号:13AZD078). （批准号:13AZD078）
