中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(1)：26-34,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170509
基于阶段对比的中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系
Study on the coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in China based on stage comparison
摘要
Abstract
There is a lack of sufficient theoretical basis to judge the coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization with speed as the standard.In the process of urbanization,the input of population and land elements have obvious stage,so it is a feasible way to study their relationship from the perspective of contrasting urbanization stage.On the basis of summarizing the theory of urbanization stages,according to the development laws of population urbanization and land urbanization,this paper tries to observe the coordination their relationship from the perspective of ‘ stage coordination’ under different saturation scenarios.The results show that:① The population urbanization and land urbanization are in line with the Logistic curve,but there are obvious differences between the two inflection points,indicating that their coordination relationship should be analyzed in stages.② According to the standard of ‘ stage coordination’,in the stage of urbanization ‘ starting-acceleration-deceleration’,their relationship is as follow:Land urbanization lags behind population urbanization in the starting stage,land urbanization closes to population urbanization in the acceleration stage,and land urbanization will lead to population urbanization in the deceleration stage.③ In the 4 scenarios of urban population development and land management,scenarios 2 represents the ‘ low population concentration,intensified land control’,which is the best program to achieve coordination development between population urbanization and land urbanization in deceleration stage.The results indicate that:We should take the full consideration to the urbanization development stages in the process of new-type urbanization,and set up the thinking of promoting the stage coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization.In a certain extent,we should affirm the positive significance of the urban land rapid expansion in recent years,which is to catch up population urbanization,while in the deceleration stage,we need control land urbanization moderately to avoid catching up with the population urbanization and creating the new incoordination.In order to promote the coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization at the end of the deceleration stage,we should grasp the tightness of policy control,select the appropriate saturation values of population urbanization (about 80％) and the standards of per capita urban land (more than 115 m2).关键词
城镇化阶段/人口城镇化/土地城镇化/Logistic过程/拐点Key words
urbanization stage/population urbanization/land urbanization/Logistic process/inflection point分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘琼,杜晓航,盛业旭..基于阶段对比的中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(1):26-34,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“土地约束性指标的选择性执行及其治理研究”(批准号:71673141). （批准号:71673141）
