中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(1)：124-133,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170513
华北平原的极端干旱事件与农村贫困:不同收入群体在适应措施采用及成效方面的差异
Extreme drought events and rural poverty: differences on farmers' adaptive behavior and production impacts among different income groups in North China Plain
摘要
Abstract
Under these contexts that increasing serious impacts of extreme climate events on agriculture production have gradually aggravated rural poverty,and North China Plain (hereinafter NCP),as one of main grain yield regions,have faced the increasing challenges from extreme climate events,this paper empirically analyzes the differences on farms' adaptive responses to extreme drought events and production impacts of them among different rural income groups in NCP to provide the empirical evidences for planning and implementing policies on adaptation measures against climate change and poverty alleviation.Using a large-scale survey of 1 663 wheat plots of 889 households of 5 provinces in NCP,this paper builds two-stage econometric model to do quantitative analysis.The main results of this study show that:①Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups significantly decrease by 0.12 times of irrigation and 2.1％ of probability on adopting surface pipe to extreme drought events due to the weakness of their human capital,society capital,and production capital.②When wheat is shocked by a severe drought,the wheat loss will reduce by about 21％ with an increase of one time of irrigation and 12％ on the conditions of adopting surface pipe.③Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups obviously increase the loss of about 2％-3％.Based on the above conclusions,when formulating and implementing poverty alleviation policies,government should take consideration on the impacts of extreme climate events.Specifically,to improve farmers' adaptive capacity (especial for the low income groups) and well implement poverty alleviation policies,government should pay attention to the impact of human capital,society capital,and production capital.When more severe drought occurs,government should improve irrigation technologies by enhancing irrigation intensity and increasing irrigation efficiency,to mitigate its negative effects and realize poverty alleviation.关键词
极端干旱事件/不同收入群体/适应行为/生产影响/华北平原Key words
extreme drought events/different income groups/adaptive behavior/production impact/NCP分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杨宇,王金霞,侯玲玲,黄季焜..华北平原的极端干旱事件与农村贫困:不同收入群体在适应措施采用及成效方面的差异[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(1):124-133,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变化对社会经济系统的影响与适应策略”(批准号:2012CB955700) （批准号:2012CB955700）
国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目“气候变化对中国粮食安全的长期与短期影响及适应性对策”(批准号:71161140351) （批准号:71161140351）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“气候变化对农村贫困的影响及适应策略研究:基于西南地区的实地调研”(批准号:17YJCZH223) （批准号:17YJCZH223）
四川省软科学计划项目“四川粮食主产区的农地适度规模经营:规模报酬、规模收益与生产”(批准号:2017ZR0051) （批准号:2017ZR0051）
2017年气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心开放研究项目“气候变化背景下的四川省粮食安全及适应策略研究”(批准号:ZHYJ17-YB06). （批准号:ZHYJ17-YB06）
