中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(2)：8-18,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170916
中国能源低碳转型(2015-2050):可再生能源发展与可行路径
Low-carbon transformation of China's energy in 2015-2050 :renewable energy development and feasible path
摘要
Abstract
In the context of the new round of industrial revolution,the third round energy revolution is quietly occurring and China is now on the ‘ crossroads’ of energy transformation.Most of existing studies on the path of energy transformation focus on energy transformation itself,ignoring the important feature of linking energy transition to the stage of economic development;that is,what kind of energy transformation program will have the costs in the near future can be absorbed by the economic system,and in the long term can promote the sustainable economic growth.? In view of this,this paper uses CGE model and transnational comparisons to study China' s energy transformation and economic development.Based on the results,the feasible path of China' s energy transformation is divided into three stages.During 2015-2025,China' s economy enters the ‘ new normal’,is experiencing economic growth shift period,structural adjustment pain period and early stimulating policy digestion period,which is called ‘ three-superimposed’ stage,but also an important period across the ‘ middle income trap’.In this period,the government should take ‘ moderate’ means on energy transformation because high proportion of renewable energy development will have a great negative impact on the economy,which is not feasible.During 2025-2035,it is the period which will determine the direction of energy transformation.We can either set up a higher proportion targets of renewable energy development,or the fossil energy may still dominant the energy system due to its ‘ clean itself potential’.The direction of transformation should be closely linked with the new round of industrial revolution.During 2035-2050,it is the mature period of energy transformation and renewable energy development will enter a new stage.China' s energy system may have two possibilities.One is that by 2050,renewable energy accounted for more than 60％ in the primary energy consumption structure.The other is that in some areas renewable energy can provide 100％ of energy consumption and in the entire energy supply system,fossil energy and non-fossil energy will equally share the market.关键词
能源转型/产业革命/可再生能源/中等收入陷阱/低碳发展Key words
energy transformation/industry revolution/renewable energy/middle income trap/low-carbon development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马丽梅,史丹,裴庆冰..中国能源低碳转型(2015-2050):可再生能源发展与可行路径[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(2):8-18,11.基金项目
中国社会科学院重大社会调查项目“基于大数据的经济监测及预警研究” （）
北京市社会科学基金重点项目“北京市自然资源资产负债表编制及其管理研究”(批准号:15JGA024) （批准号:15JGA024）
中国博士后基金面上项目“经济转型与雾霾污染关系研究:跨国比较与空间计量实证”(批准号:2016M591329). （批准号:2016M591329）
