中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(2)：28-35,8.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170716
基于BP结构突变的中国能源强度及因素分解研究
Analysis on structural break based on BP method and factor decomposition of energy intensity in China
摘要
Abstract
Energy is the material basis for human survival and development,it is the key to sustainable development of China' s economy,and it also reveals the performance of social progress.Although energy consumption in China is decreasing,China is still the largest energy consumption country in the world.With the decline of conventional energy sources,energy security becomes the bottleneck of sustainable development China' s economy.Therefore,energy intensity needs to be reduced urgently.It is significant to study the reasons of energy intensity decline;by using factor decomposing,it is helpful to find rules of energy changes.The structural breaks of energy intensity in China from 1980 to 2015 were examined by using BP method and LMDI decomposition model to study the reasons for the decline of different stages.In this paper,energy intensity was decomposed into eight factors,namely energy intensity in sectors,energy consumption per unit length of transportation routes,energy consumption of transportation output,per capita living energy consumption,urbanization,per capita income effect,industrial structure,and energy structure.The experimental results showed that three structural breaks existed from 1980 to 2015 due to the economic development and national policy shocks.And the structural breaks took place in 1991,2002 and 2008,which divided the time series of energy intensity in China into four stages.In addition,energy intensity showed a decreasing trend during the sample period and the main factors of the reduction in energy intensity were energy intensity in each sector and energy consumption structure.Meanwhile,per capita living energy,per capita income effect,and transportation industry had significant impact on energy intensity.Taking into account of the contribution of each factor to energy intensity,we put forward several suggestions.The renewable energy technologies need to be developed and popularized to adjust the energy consumption structure.What' s more,low-carbon energy saving products should be applied to reduce the living energy consumption.Besides the per capita income needs to be increased by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry.Energy saving way of transportation should be developed to reduce the energy intensity of transportation industry.关键词
能源强度/BP结构突变/因素分解/能源结构Key words
energy intensity/BP structural break/factor decomposition/energy consumption structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
夏晨霞,王子龙..基于BP结构突变的中国能源强度及因素分解研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(2):28-35,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“风电技术装备协同创新的实现机制与政策设计研究”(批准号:71373005) （批准号:71373005）
教育部人文社会科学基金项目“重大技术装备协同创新的政策设计研究”(批准号:15YJAZH093) （批准号:15YJAZH093）
江苏省高校社会科学重点项目“经济新常态下区域环境治理的政策设计研究”(批准号:2016ZDIXM006) （批准号:2016ZDIXM006）
江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏环境治理的共建共享机制及政策设计研究”(批准号:16ZZB004). （批准号:16ZZB004）
