中国人口·资源与环境2018，Vol.28Issue(2)：36-47,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20171007
中国省际能源强度的分布动态演进及其成因
Examination on the distribution dynamics of energy intensity across Chinese provinces and its determinants
摘要
Abstract
This paper examined the convergence of energy intensity across 30 Chinese provincial units for the period 1986-2014 by using a weighted distribution dynamics approach.Moreover,we also analyzed how spatial location,capital intensity and income level influence the distribution dynamics of provincial energy intensity with a conditional distribution approach.The results show that the coefficient of variation keeps an increasing trend in the research period,implying that the energy intensity across Chinese provinces has a dispersing trend in general.The long-run stationary distribution of energy intensity across Chinese provinces converges into asymmetric bimodality for the period 1986-2005.However,due to the change in the environmental and energy reduction policy after 2005,the distribution converges into trimodality for the period 2005-2014.Economic and population size have significant influence on the distribution of energy intensity across Chinese provinces.Moreover,the influence increases over time.This implies that neglecting economic and population scale may lead to biased estimation on the convergence of energy intensity.The conditioning analysis indicates that spatial location is the most important determinant among the three factors in the sample period,followed by income level,while geographical location has the least impact.However,in the most recent period of 2005-2014,capital intensity is the determinant factor in the formation of trimodality in the long-run steady distribution.Geographical location also has important impact on the formation of trimodality in the long-run stationary distribution for the period 2005-2014.On the contrary,income level has no significant influence on the trimodality in the long-run steady distribution in this period.Our results have important policy implications.First,the dispersion in energy intensity indicates that encouraging interregional energy technological spillover may improve energy efficiency in China.Second,the combination of regional development program and energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction policy may be more efficient in promoting the convergence in energy intensity.Third,as population and economic activities are moving toward high energy efficiency provinces,thus encouraging factor mobility may improve the energy efficiency in Chinese provinces.关键词
能源强度/分布动态/加权收敛/条件分布分析Key words
energy intensity/weighted convergence/distribution dynamics/conditional distribution analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴建新,贺佳瑶,钱晶晶..中国省际能源强度的分布动态演进及其成因[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(2):36-47,12.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“加权的连续性分布动态方法及其应用研究”(批准号:16YJA790050) （批准号:16YJA790050）
国家自然科学基金重点项目“推动经济发达地区产业转型升级的机制与政策研究”(批准号:71333007) （批准号:71333007）
国家社科基金重大项目“我国重点生态功能区市场化生态补偿机制研究”(批准号:15ZDA054). （批准号:15ZDA054）
