长江科学院院报2017，Vol.34Issue(12)：38-43,6.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20160889
基于核密度估计与VaR的甘肃黑方台地区滑坡影响范围估计模型
A New Methodology of Landslide Hazard Mapping by Kernel Density Estimation and Value-at-Risk Measurement in Heifangtai Area, Gansu Province of China
摘要
Abstract
Hazard mapping is a prevailing part of spatial analysis of landslides.Previous researches use runout distances to map the hazard ranges.In this paper,we present an improved methodology by using the dataset that contains all runout distances of landslide locations in Heifangtai area.According to the runout distances,the landslide locations are categorized into six groups.For each group,the kernel density estimation and Value-at-Risk (VaR) measurement are conducted for statistical modeling.Statistical results indicate a kernel density with MISE =68.7238 fit the probability distributions of runout distances best.Furthermore,for each group,hazards are mapped according to the runout distances at different levels of risks (DR).According to the experimental results,a preventive construction measure is proposed in the location computed as DR for Groups Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ and Ⅵ.Meanwhile,the correlation between moisture content and runout distance in Group Ⅳ and Ⅴ is derived by further numerical analysis.关键词
滑坡影响范围/核密度估计/VaR模型/滑坡风险滑动距离/风险度量滑动距离Key words
hazard mapping/Kernel density estimation/Value-at-Risk/runout distance of landslide/Value-at-Risk measurements of runout distances分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李骅锦,许强,何雨森..基于核密度估计与VaR的甘肃黑方台地区滑坡影响范围估计模型[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(12):38-43,6.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2014CB744703) （2014CB744703）
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(41225011) （41225011）
