福建农业学报2017，Vol.32Issue(10)：1150-1155,6.DOI:10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2017.10.020
山东省大蒜价格波动特征及影响因素分析
Characteristics of and Factors Affecting Garlic Price Fluctuations in Shandong
李彩彩 1秦娜 1周杨 2郝庆升2
作者信息
- 1. 商丘工学院管理学院,河南商丘476000
- 2. 吉林农业大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130118
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
GARCH-M and E-GARCH models were employed to analyze thevolatility of market price of garlics in Shandong Province from January 2006 to May 2016.The principal component regression analysis was applied to determine the major factors that affected the price fluctuations in 2003-2015.The results showed that the garlic price fluctuated (a) in a socalled "leptokurtosis,abnormal" characteristic with lasting presences;(b) with significant agglomeration and asymmetricity on the effect of market information,a downward trend brought about much greater impact on price than an upward one;and (c) with high risk as well as high return for the business.In 2003-2015,the F1 mixed factor played a fundamental role,while the F2 yield factor exerted a dominant effect,on the market.The garlic price was dictated by the supply and demand,operational costs and other macro factors.The production volume,planting area and exportation of garlics in the province were the most important elements that drove the market movements.关键词
大蒜/价格波动/波动特征/影响因素/山东省Key words
garlic/price fluctuation/fluctuation characteristics/influencing factors/Shandong Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李彩彩,秦娜,周杨,郝庆升..山东省大蒜价格波动特征及影响因素分析[J].福建农业学报,2017,32(10):1150-1155,6.
