交通信息与安全2018，Vol.36Issue(1)：28-34,7.DOI:10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2018.01.004
基于改进未确知测度模型的内河客船夜航风险评价
Evaluation of Navigation Risk for Inland-river Passenger Ships at Night-time Through Improved Uncertainty Measurement Model
摘要
Abstract
In order to guarantee navigation safety,and to identify safety factors of passenger ships in inland rivers at nighttime,the factors that affect navigation safety are classified into 4 categories,which are human and ship,natural en-vironment,port,and management.An index system for risk evaluation of navigation for passenger ships at nighttime is established.Combining Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight theory,influences of subjective and objec-tive factors can be alleviated in weight distribution of each evaluation index.The unascertained theory is used to deal with randomness and uncertainty of evaluation indices in the model.Taking the Haihe River in Tianjin as a case study,an un-ascertained model is used to evaluate navigation risk of passenger ships at nighttime.The results show that weight ratios of 5 factors are larger than others,including crews,ship seaworthiness,intensity of background light,safety manage-ment of ships,and shipping companies.The risk level of navigation at nighttime in Haihe River is"normal"and its confi-dence is larger than 70%.关键词
航行安全/夜行风险/熵权法/层次分析法/未确知测度模型Key words
navigation safety/navigation risk at nighttime/entropy weight method/Analytic Hierarchy Process/unascertained model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
赵洪帝,刘敬贤,刘奕,赵洪峰,徐周华..基于改进未确知测度模型的内河客船夜航风险评价[J].交通信息与安全,2018,36(1):28-34,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51479156)、湖北省科技支撑计划对外科技合作类项目重点项目(2015BHE004)资助 （51479156）
