南京信息工程大学学报2018，Vol.10Issue(2)：244-251,8.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.jnuist.2018.02.018
CMIP5全球气候模式对贵州省极端气温的预估
Projected changes in extreme temperature events in Guizhou based on CMIP5 simulations
摘要
Abstract
Based on the climate simulations from 8 CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models,their simulation capabilities for air temperature in Guizhou have been examined by using Taylor diagram for period of 1986-2005.Future changes in extreme temperature events under the RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)scenarios with the simple multi-model ensemble method are presented for the 21st century over Guizhou. Results show that the simple multi-model ensemble method from the 8 CMIP5 modes can well simulate the spatial distribution of daily average temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily maximum temperature,which are necessary to compute the indexes of extreme temperature events.Project results show that in the 21st century, Guizhou's maximum temperature days(SU),values of extreme minimum temperature(TNN),and days of growing season length(GSL)are likely to increase;while the frost days(FD)are likely to decrease;moreover,the increas-ing and decreasing trends are more obvious with more gas emission.Relative to period of 1986-2005,the linear vari-ation trends of Guizhou's SU,TNN,FD and GSL during 2006-2099 are likely to be 8.06-1.30 d/(10 a),0.49-0.07 ℃/(10 a),-4.99--0.97 d/(10 a),and 3.33-0.04 d/(10 a),respectively,under the RCPs scenarios.关键词
CMIP5/不同RCP情景/气候变化预估/极端气温Key words
CMIP5/RCPs scenarios/projected climate change/extreme temperature events分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张娇艳,李扬,吴战平,李忠燕,段莹..CMIP5全球气候模式对贵州省极端气温的预估[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2018,10(2):244-251,8.基金项目
资助项目中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013031) （2013031）
贵州省气象局青年科技基金(黔气科合QN[2016]08号) （黔气科合QN[2016]08号）
贵州省气象科技开放基金(黔气科KF[2018]01号) （黔气科KF[2018]01号）
