气候变化研究进展2018，Vol.14Issue(2)：182-190,9.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.044
巴黎协定背景下全球减排博弈模拟研究
Game simulation on emission reduction under the background of the Paris Agreement
摘要
Abstract
A seven-region based integrated assessment model is established in this paper targeting to model the emission reduction game worldwide. Under the Paris Agreement, given the emission mitigation scheme by 2025/2030, 2050, and 2100 for each country (region) as gaming strategy, the Nash equilibrium, the uncertainties of the game and the influences from external mitigation mechanisms are evaluated in each strategy combinations. In the reference scenario, no country (region) would take emission reduction after 2030 for the sake of their own optimal social welfare improvement, leading the global temperature rising to 2.62℃ by 2100. The Nash equilibrium remains stable even when the climatic and economic parameters are disturbed. As an alternative, an external sanction on non-mitigation is applied; in this scenario, climate change mitigation propagates across countries (regions) according to various sanction levels, in which developed countries tend to adopt mitigation strategy earlier than developing countries as a response to the non-mitigation sanction. Meanwhile, under the Paris Agreement, simulation also reveals the emission reduction from 2030 to 2050 has become crucial for making the 2℃ threshold viable if no extra mitigations are implemented before 2030. An emission reduction target higher than the "developed and developing countries cutting emission 80% and 50% on 1990 level by 2050" is required in this circumstance, otherwise the global temperature will overshoot 2℃ around 2040.关键词
气候博弈/减排/巴黎协定/2℃目标Key words
Climate game/Emission reduction/Paris Agreement/2℃ target引用本文复制引用
吴静,朱潜挺,王诗琪,王铮..巴黎协定背景下全球减排博弈模拟研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2018,14(2):182-190,9.基金项目
国家重大研究计划(973)项目(2016YFA0602702) （973）
国家社会科学基金项目(14CGJ025) （14CGJ025）
国家自然科学基金项目(41501127) （41501127）
