中华医学图书情报杂志2017，Vol.26Issue(12)：21-25,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-3982.2017.12.004
基于ARCH(自回归条件异方差)模型的我国药品价格波动的实证分析
ARCH model-based empirical analysis of drug price fluctuation in our country
摘要
Abstract
Objective To study the characteristics and trends of drug price fluctuation in our country in order to provide reference for the governments in evaluating their policy for the macro-control and management of drug price. Methods The drug price fluctuation was empirically analyzed using the ARCH model according to the monthly drug price data from 2011 to 2017. Results The drug price presented a fluctuant increasing trend with an even fluctuation amplitude and frequency, especially after its reform in 2015. The fluctuation of drug price did not show any clustered feature and significant impact on information but a rather strong memory. Conclusion The fluctuation of drug price is relatively stable in our country. The drug price control policy plays a rather effectively role in stabilizing thefluctuation of drug price. It is thus suggested that the governments should bring their role into full play in controlling drug price, regulating drug marketing, and supervising drug price.关键词
药品价格/价格指数/价格管理/药品价格改革Key words
Drug price/Price index/Price management/Drug price reform分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
宋燕,韩志琰,宋奎勐,窦伟洁,甄天民..基于ARCH(自回归条件异方差)模型的我国药品价格波动的实证分析[J].中华医学图书情报杂志,2017,26(12):21-25,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"药品价格形成机制对基本药物可获得性的影响研究:基于预期理论视角"(71503149) （71503149）
山东省医药卫生科技发展项目"推进山东省药品价格改革的关键问题界定与对策研究"(2015WS0174) （2015WS0174）
