长江科学院院报2018，Vol.35Issue(2)：18-22,56,6.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20161063
哈什河径流趋势预测及周期分析
Trend and Period Analysis of Long-term Runoff in Khasu River
摘要
Abstract
According to the annual natural runoff time series of Tuohai hydrological station on Khasu River in West Tianshan Mountain from 1958 to 2015,we diagnosed the runoff trend,abrupt changes and cyclic evolution pattern by accumulated anomaly,Mann-Kendall test,power spectrum method and wavelet analysis to provide technical support for the rational use of river water resources,the joint scheduling of cascade reservoirs,and to reveal the runoff evolution of the Ili river.The results are concluded as follows:1) annual runoff presents a slight rising trend in the recent 58 years;2) annual runoff increased in periods in 1968-1974 and 1998-2010,but decreased in periods in 1975-1997 and 2011-2014;3) annual runoff changed with an abrupt increase in 1968 and 2014,and an abrupt decline in 1980;4) annual runoff changed in three time-scales,namely 3-5 years,9-12 years and 17-19 years,with the dominant periods of 4,11 and 19 years.关键词
径流趋势预测/累积距平/Mann-Kendall/功率谱分析方法/小波分析/哈什河Key words
runoff trend prediction/accumulated anomaly/Mann-Kendall/power spectrum method/wavelet analysis/Khasu River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张亚璇,雷晓云,姜泉泉,马志贵,张衡..哈什河径流趋势预测及周期分析[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(2):18-22,56,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U1178301) （U1178301）
新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金项目(XJzdxk2010-02-12) （XJzdxk2010-02-12）
自治区水文学与水资源重点学科基金项目 （）
