当代经济管理2018，Vol.40Issue(4)：8-15,8.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2018.04.005
人口变动、消费结构与居民消费潜力释放——基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析
Population Change,Consumption Structure and Release of Residents'Consumption Potential——Based on GMM Analysis of Provincial Dynamic Panel Data
摘要
Abstract
On the basis of Keynes's absolute income hypothesis and Hall's random walking hypothesis, the paper introduces the related population variables to establish the dynamic Panel Data model. Using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country, based on the stationarity test and cointegration test for each variable, this paper comprehensively analyzes the influence of population change on the consumption structure of rural residents. The results show that the consumption structure is significantly influenced by the past consumption habits, and has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the demographic factors. Specifically, the increase of the elderly dependency ratio and population sex ratio will slow down the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure of residents. The improvement of population education level and population urbanization will optimize the residents' consumption structure to a certain extent. Under the current population development, the low level consumption based on subsistence consumption will continue for some time in our country. However, with the balance of population structure, the improvement of population quality and of population urbanization level, the consumption structure will be constantly optimized and upgraded.关键词
人口结构/人口受教育程度/人口城镇化/消费结构/消费潜力Key words
population structure/population education level/population urbanization/consumption structure/consumption potential分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴石英,马芒..人口变动、消费结构与居民消费潜力释放——基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析[J].当代经济管理,2018,40(4):8-15,8.基金项目
安徽省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究项目《皖北农村居民文化消费研究》(SK2016A0611). （SK2016A0611）
