净水技术2018，Vol.37Issue(1)：112-116,5.DOI:10.15890/j.cnki.jsjs.2018.01.018
基于管材分类的供水管网爆管风险预测模型
Model of Risk Prediction for Water Supply Pipelines Burst Based on Pipe Material Classification
摘要
Abstract
According to water supply networks and characteristics of pipe burst historic record of ZZ City,the prediction model of pipe burst risk is set up for each group by pipe materials classification combining with the classic Cox proportional hazard model.Then the model,combining with GIS network of ZZ City,is used for obtaining the distribution of pipe burst risk to assess the pipe burst risk and is validated with the spatial distribution of historic pipe burst points.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model for high risk and dangerous pipe is close to 70％,which shows that the model can effectively identify the pipes with higher pipe burst risk in the pipe network.关键词
给水管网/爆管/风险预测模型/Cox比例风险模型Key words
water supply network/pipe burst/risk prediction model/Cox proportional hazard model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈能,信昆仑,莫宇琨..基于管材分类的供水管网爆管风险预测模型[J].净水技术,2018,37(1):112-116,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400602) （2016YFC0400602）
国家自然科学基金项目(51678425) （51678425）
