人民黄河2018，Vol.40Issue(4)：37-40,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2018.04.009
基于参数不确定性的洪水概率预报研究
Study on Probabilistic Forecasting Accounting for Parametric Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
In the actual flood forecast,the optimization of the parameters is often determined by empirical judgment or dependent on the in-complete data set data in the historical library.However,due to the fact that the flood characteristics cannot be accurately predicted,even the parameters required in different stages of flood,there is a large difference,so the selected parameters are not necessarily suitable for the flood forecast of the current flood. In this study,the objective facts of the uncertainties based on the hydrological model were analyzed,the hydro-logical model was driven by the randomly generated parameters and the ensemble forecast was realized by combining the numerical model. This study revealed the significant effect of hydrological parameters uncertainty on the flood forecast results through 36-stage flood simulation tests in Dongwan basin. The results show that the probabilistic prediction algorithm based on the uncertainty of the parameters is accurate and the accuracy of the probabilistic forecast results is accurate. And the reliability is high,which indicates that the algorithm can reduce the un-certainty in flood forecasting caused by parameters of hydrological model.关键词
新安江模型/参数不确定性/概率分布/概率预报Key words
Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model/parameter uncertainty/probabilistic distribution/probabilistic forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
赵信峰,徐鹏,刘开磊,赵丽霞,徐十锋,郏建..基于参数不确定性的洪水概率预报研究[J].人民黄河,2018,40(4):37-40,4.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400909,2016YFC0402703) （2016YFC0400909,2016YFC0402703）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301066). （201301066）
